Midterm trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket is setting records as markets price heavy Democratic odds, a key test of whether prediction markets beat traditional polls.
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Kalshi says midterm volume passed $1.4 billion, with users heavily positioned on Democrats taking both chambers.
Multiple sportsbook operators are pulling or pausing Utah prediction market offerings following criminal charges against Kalshi in the state.
An industry organization approved a Polymarket unit to act as a futures broker, advancing the platform's US regulated footprint.
Kalshi began offering perpetual futures tied to US equities, drawing objections from established Wall Street firms.
Polymarket is winding down Michigan sports markets, the latest venue to retreat amid state-level pressure on event contracts.
Jefferies data show October prediction market volume up 55% month over month to a record, signaling rapid category growth.
Sporttrade secured CFTC clearance to launch event contracts, adding another regulated entrant to the prediction market field.
Platforms and regulators are grappling with insider trading risk as election markets attract large volumes.
Combined losses on Kalshi parlay products have crossed $1 billion, underscoring the scale of retail activity on the venue.
Lawmakers from both parties are signaling oversight of prediction markets once election season ends.
Sportradar credited prediction markets with a significant role in its third quarter growth as event contracts show up in earnings.
Nate Silver highlighted large gaps between his forecast model and prediction market pricing in the final midterm stretch.
Michigan's Senate market has drawn heavy volume on Kalshi, where Abdul El-Sayed's odds rose after Haley Stevens news.
Illinois is appealing a ruling that blocked its law restricting prediction markets, extending the state-level legal fight.
Marex completed clearing of an event contract trade for a large financial institution on Kalshi, a step toward institutional participation.
Robinhood's economics on event contracts are far richer than equities trading, a factor behind its prediction market push.
Market pricing implies Democrats are favored to reach or exceed 53 Senate seats, above a bare majority.
Lawyers outline the state-by-state lawsuits that may ultimately push prediction market regulation to the Supreme Court.
Kalshi's reported $40 billion valuation boosted the ERShares crossover ETF's stake in the startup.
Kalshi's market data show Democratic odds improving in nearly every Senate race compared with earlier pricing.
Kalshi pricing has Talarico well ahead in the Texas Senate race even as public polls show a closer contest.
Kalshi launched a midterms index that settles to Pyth price feeds, letting traders take a single position across races.
The 76ers became the latest pro team to sign a prediction market sponsorship with Kalshi.
Analysts flag rising competitive pressure on DraftKings as prediction market venues expand their sports offerings.
Strategists say a Democratic sweep could move equities, though historical precedent suggests limited lasting impact.
Prediction platforms are spending on celebrity endorsements as they push into mainstream consumer awareness.
Traders on prediction venues are pricing Democratic advantages in congressional races with crypto policy stakes.
CNBC reports market-implied Senate odds near 75% for Democrats heading into Election Day.
Kalshi is directing millions to New York schools while contesting state regulatory action against its event contracts.
Market pricing on Kalshi diverges from polling in Florida, where traders lean Republican across key races.
Australia's securities regulator raised public interest concerns about retail access to prediction markets.
Analysts warn that event contracts tied to classified or non-public outcomes could create new disclosure risks.
Kalshi odds still favor Governor Abbott in Texas despite late polling showing a tighter race.
Institutional investors are adopting multi-outcome event contracts as portfolio tools.
An Ohio state senator is pushing legislation to authorize prediction markets in the state.
YouTube broadened ad targeting for gambling while maintaining restrictions on prediction market advertising.
Traders are pricing California congressional and statewide races on the two largest prediction venues.
The Caribbean jurisdiction created a licensing regime aimed at prediction market operators.
Kalshi pricing shows a tossup in the Iowa Senate race with the candidates level.
Action Network reports prediction market pricing favors Jackson in Maine and Brown in Ohio.
Aries debuted a prediction market venue limited to non-sports event contracts.
Commentators debate whether markets or polling deserve more weight, and whether event contracts are simply betting.
RotoWire rounds up market-implied odds for Alaska's Senate and gubernatorial contests.
The Tobique First Nation adopted its own prediction markets framework, adding to a patchwork of tribal and provincial rules.
Kalshi traders put 71% odds on the New Mexico penalty against Meta being cut on appeal.
Kalshi pricing on the pitcher's destination shifted notably, drawing attention as a signal of trade momentum.
Chicago's Super Bowl odds rose on Kalshi after recent results.
Traders are pricing outcomes around AMD's earnings call guidance ahead of results.
Kalshi traders raised the odds of an Anthony Davis trade amid league speculation.
Duke and Florida top championship boards while a model sees value in Tennessee's Kalshi pricing.
Kalshi pricing on a Breece Hall trade rose as NFL deadline chatter intensified.
Bar operators describe using event contracts as a hedge on game outcomes and promotions.
A batch of college football spreads and trading notes appeared on Polymarket ahead of week 10 matchups.
A review assesses whether Outpoll can serve both event contracts and futures trading users.
A Kalshi player prop market around the Cavaliers-Thunder game drew a published prediction.
CBS Sports offered combination picks on Kalshi and Polymarket for Ohio-Akron and Buffalo-Miami (OH).