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prediction markets, covered - the venues, the odds, the regulators
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Nearly $1.9 billion traded on US midterms across prediction markets, with Democrats favored to sweep Congress
Midterm trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket is setting records as markets price heavy Democratic odds, a key test of whether prediction markets beat traditional polls.
- Kalshi's midterm trading tops $1.4 billion as traders bet on a Democratic sweep of CongressKalshi says midterm volume passed $1.4 billion, with users heavily positioned on Democrats taking both chambers.Fortune · +3 sources
- DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics scale back Utah prediction markets after Kalshi criminal chargesMultiple sportsbook operators are pulling or pausing Utah prediction market offerings following criminal charges against Kalshi in the state.Yogonet · +14 sources
- Polymarket unit wins US industry group approval to operate as a futures brokerAn industry organization approved a Polymarket unit to act as a futures broker, advancing the platform's US regulated footprint.Reuters · +8 sources
- Kalshi launches first US stock perpetuals as Wall Street pushes backKalshi began offering perpetual futures tied to US equities, drawing objections from established Wall Street firms.Ledger Insights · +13 sources
- Polymarket to halt Michigan sports prediction markets by November 25Polymarket is winding down Michigan sports markets, the latest venue to retreat amid state-level pressure on event contracts.Casino.com · +14 sources
- Prediction market volume jumps 55% to a new record in October, Jefferies saysJefferies data show October prediction market volume up 55% month over month to a record, signaling rapid category growth.Casino.org · +1 sources
- Sporttrade receives CFTC approval to enter prediction marketsSporttrade secured CFTC clearance to launch event contracts, adding another regulated entrant to the prediction market field.Covers.com · +9 sources
- Prediction market insider trading draws compliance scrutinyPlatforms and regulators are grappling with insider trading risk as election markets attract large volumes.FinTech Global · +12 sources
- Polymarket unit wins NFA approval to operate as a US futures brokerThe National Futures Association approved Polymarket's PM Derivatives unit as a futures commission merchant, a regulatory step that lets the company offer fully collateralized event contracts through a federally supervised brokerage.msn · +9 sources
- Nearly $1.9 billion traded on midterms across prediction marketsMidterm volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi has set a record for a US election cycle, with Democrats favored in both chambers.The Washington Post · +13 sources
- Sens. Warren, Curtis probe Kalshi and Polymarket over election betting and insider trading riskThe senators' letters press the two prediction markets to show that election odds are not being manipulated or gamed by insiders days before the midterms.InsuranceNewsNet · +14 sources
- Polymarket to return $3.9M to traders after third-party script compromiseA compromised vendor script drained about $2.7 million from users; the company is refunding $3.9 million and firms have cited a DNS hijack in the incident.TradingView · +10 sources
- Polymarket seeks $400M raise at $15B valuationThe reported fundraising would value the private prediction market company at roughly triple the level of its last round.CoinMarketCap · +7 sources
- Google security engineer charged with making $1M on Polymarket using inside informationThe case is one of several insider trading probes now testing compliance controls at prediction markets, which argue their survival depends on catching such trades.FinTech Global · +6 sources
- Democrats accuse Musk's X of giving Polymarket preferential treatmentSenate Democrats sent a letter to X leadership questioning whether the platform's timeline treatment and ad practices favor Polymarket, which is tied to Trump Jr.yahoo · +7 sources
- Polymarket market share falls to 17% as Kalshi pulls aheadKalshi's regulated US footprint is drawing volume away from Polymarket even as both platforms set midterm records.Gaming America · +4 sources
- Kalshi raises $1B Series G at $40B valuation, up 82% from prior roundThe funding round more than doubles Kalshi's valuation and underscores how quickly regulated event contracts have grown beyond their election-betting roots into sports and financial markets.TOKENPOST · +15 sources
- Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi and co-founders; CFTC sues state, federal government seeks haltUtah's charges against Kalshi and its founders mark an escalation of the state-versus-federal fight over whether event contracts are legal financial products or unlicensed gambling.Tribuna.com · +14 sources
- Midterm betting tops $1.4B on Kalshi and nears $1.9B industry-wide as Democrats favored in both chambersRecord election volumes show prediction markets have moved into the mainstream even as analysts debate whether the boom is peaking.The Independent · +5 sources
- Senators Warren and Curtis press Kalshi and Polymarket to show election odds are not taintedThe Senate inquiry adds federal political pressure over manipulation and insider trading risks just as the platforms face their biggest election test.Business Insider · +14 sources
- Kalshi traders price Democrats' odds of sweeping Congress at 70% to 75%, Senate at record 75%The combined sweep contract is the headline number traders are watching heading into Election Day, with pricing across Kalshi and Polymarket broadly aligned.Quartz · +14 sources
- Prediction markets face their biggest accuracy test as US midterms concludeThe midterms are the first mass-scale referendum on whether market-implied probabilities beat conventional polling.Reuters · +14 sources
- Utah prediction markets empty out as DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and others pull back after Kalshi chargesOperators retreating from Utah shows the criminal case immediately reshaping where prediction market venues are willing to do business.Yogonet · +14 sources
- Kalshi claims first US stock perpetuals launch as Wall Street pushes backThe product extends Kalshi beyond event contracts into a derivatives format that has drawn objections from established exchanges.Ledger Insights · +8 sources
- Nearly $1.9 billion wagered on midterms as prediction markets hit record volumesTrading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has scaled from a niche 2024 experiment to a multi-billion-dollar election event, drawing mainstream media and financial scrutiny.The Washington Post · +12 sources
- Prediction markets face their first real midterm accuracy test as election bets soarWith Election Day live, forecasters and academics are watching whether market prices beat polls on House and Senate control after a string of high-profile misses.Reuters · +13 sources
- Traders price Democrats as heavy favorites to sweep House and SenateKalshi and Polymarket contracts have moved sharply toward Democrats in the final days of the campaign, with Senate odds jumping on Election Day.iGaming Business · +14 sources
- Election trading stagnates on prediction markets compared with 2024 boomBloomberg and others report that despite record dollar totals, election-specific activity is growing slower than sports and crypto contracts on the same platforms.Bloomberg.com · +9 sources
- Wisconsin judge denies injunction, leaving ban on betting then voting in placeA court declined to block Wisconsin's rule forcing election traders to choose between voting and holding prediction market positions, and state officials warn violators face felony exposure.The Center Square · +4 sources
- Senators press Kalshi and Polymarket to prove election odds are not taintedLawmakers want the platforms to show how they detect manipulation and insider trading in election contracts ahead of the vote.Business Insider · +9 sources
- Sporttrade wins CFTC approval to enter prediction market industryThe sports betting exchange becomes the latest regulated entrant in federally overseen event contracts, adding competition to Kalshi and Polymarket.Covers.com · +9 sources
- Prediction markets may face bipartisan reckoning in Washington after midtermsIndustry observers expect Congress and regulators to revisit event contracts once the election is over, with platforms dependent on political goodwill they cannot fully control.Front Office Sports · +4 sources
- Utah Sues Kalshi for $61M Over Alleged Illegal Gambling; Rivals Pull Prediction Markets From StateUtah's suit and criminal charges against Kalshi prompted DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Robinhood to scale back or halt event contracts in the state, the sharpest state-level challenge yet to prediction market venues.Casino.com · +4 sources
- Robinhood Stock Down 40% From High as Crypto Revenue Slumps and Prediction Markets Face Legal ThreatsAnalysts attribute Robinhood's steep share decline to weaker crypto trading revenue and legal risk around its prediction market push.Disruption Banking · +13 sources
- Sporttrade Wins CFTC Approval to Operate as Prediction Market DCM and ClearinghouseCFTC clearance lets Sporttrade become a federally regulated exchange and clearinghouse for event contracts, expanding the regulated US prediction market field beyond Kalshi and Polymarket.RG.org · +8 sources
- Prediction Market Operators Confront Question of Whether Event Contracts Are Gambling or TradingThe regulatory fight over event contracts turns on classification, which determines whether platforms fall under CFTC oversight or state gambling law.CoinMarketCap · +14 sources
- Robinhood Says Prediction Trades Earn It Up to 175 Times More Than Stock TradesAn analysis of Robinhood's unit economics shows event contracts generating far higher revenue per trade than equities, underscoring why the brokerage pushed into prediction markets.Coinpaper · +6 sources
- Nasdaq Pursues Launch of Inflation Prediction MarketsNasdaq's plan to list economic-data event contracts would bring prediction markets into mainstream exchange territory, targeting macro hedging rather than sports.ATS.io · +5 sources
- Philadelphia 76ers Sign Multi-Year Prediction Market Deal With KalshiThe NBA team becomes the latest sports franchise to partner with Kalshi, extending event-contract branding into mainstream sports sponsorship.Yogonet · +14 sources
- Event Contracts Appear in Third-Quarter Results as Midterm Polls OpenEarnings disclosures show prediction market volumes are now material enough to appear in quarterly financials as US midterm trading peaks.Morningstar · +6 sources
- Utah sues Kalshi and its co-founders, seeking $61M over alleged illegal gamblingUtah's criminal case against the prediction market operator is the most aggressive state action yet against Kalshi, which argues it is federally regulated.Casino.com · +13 sources
- CFTC asks court to throw out Utah's criminal case against KalshiThe federal derivatives regulator is siding with Kalshi in arguing that state gambling enforcement is preempted by CFTC jurisdiction.WSN.com · +14 sources
- DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Robinhood pull prediction markets from Utah after Kalshi chargesOperators exited Utah en masse as the state's criminal case against Kalshi raised legal risk for regulated sportsbooks offering event contracts.Yogonet · +14 sources
- Illinois appeals to Seventh Circuit after judge blocks its prediction market licensing and tax lawThe state is fighting an injunction that halted its plan to regulate event contracts as sports betting, a case that could shape how states oversee the sector.CDC Gaming · +14 sources
- Kalshi wins second Supreme Court extension, pushing New Jersey response to December 7The procedural delay extends the timeline for a case that could determine whether federal commodities law preempts state gambling rules on event contracts.Gaming America · +2 sources
- Kalshi partners with the Philadelphia 76ers in first NBA team dealThe sponsorship marks prediction markets moving further into mainstream sports marketing even as regulators push back in several states.Gaming Intelligence · +14 sources
- Sporttrade receives CFTC approval as a designated contract market and clearinghouseThe approval gives Sporttrade a federally regulated path into prediction markets, adding a new competitor to Kalshi and Polymarket.RG.org · +9 sources
- CFTC greenlights trading in single-stock perpetual contractsThe move opens a new leveraged retail product category that could overlap with the same market-structure debates surrounding event contracts.Yahoo Finance · +13 sources