🎯 PRDCT Picks
Mispriced markets
A few positive expected-value picks a day, where our news-researched probability disagrees with the market price. Tracked on a paper bankroll.
$1,108paper bankroll
Not investment advice. PRDCT Picks is an automated research model on a paper account. Each pick is a positive-EV position sized by half-Kelly; we publish only genuine edges and track every one, winners and losers. Prediction markets can stay mispriced longer than a model expects.
Today's slate · 2026-09-10
YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?WON +$18
market 75%our model 97%edge +23 ptsEV +30.2%
United Russia won 324 of 450 seats in 2021 and holds a commanding, structurally guaranteed majority; analysts expect it to retain effective control of the Sept 20 vote regardless of vote share. 'Most seats' is essentially a lock in a managed election, so 75% is a large underprice.
NO
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?LOST −$52
market 49%our model 55%edge +6 ptsEV +13.29%
After Shelton stunned Alcaraz, Zverev is the new favorite but sharp books (+110) and DraftKings Predictions (~44-45%) price his title odds well below Polymarket's 51%. He still must beat Khachanov then a red-hot Shelton or Tiafoe in the final, making 51% too rich.
How a pick is determined
The market gives an implied probability (the price). Our researcher reads the news on each market (base rates, dated catalysts, what's already priced) and forms its own probability, citing the specific evidence. We then compute the edge and expected value deterministically, and only publish when EV clears the bar.
Stakes are half-Kelly of a compounding paper bankroll ($1k start, $500 floor), capped — sized to the edge, not flat. A pick settles on the market's resolution; the bankroll, win-rate, and a Brier calibration score (does a 70% call hit ~70%?) update automatically. The honest test isn't win-rate, it's whether we beat the market's own number over time.
Settled — every graded pick
2026-09-10NOWill Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?✗ −$52
2026-09-10YESWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian ✓ +$18
2026-08-07YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Septemb✓ +$99
2026-08-06NOStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?✓ +$11
2026-08-06NOUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?✓ +$24
2026-08-06YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Septemb✓ +$57
2026-08-05NOWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Septemb✗ −$52
2026-08-04NOStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?✓ +$8
2026-08-02NOStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?✓ +$5
2026-08-02NOUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?✓ +$27
2026-08-01NOIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?✗ −$40
2026-07-31NOWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?✗ −$36
2026-07-30NOUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?✗ −$36
2026-07-29NOWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?✓ +$23
2026-07-29YESWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?✓ +$93
2026-07-28YESWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?✓ +$17
2026-07-27YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 20✗ −$49
2026-07-26YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 20✗ −$49
2026-07-24YESIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?✓ +$15
2026-07-24YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 20✗ −$43
2026-07-17YESWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C✗ −$56
2026-07-15YESWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World C✗ −$59
2026-07-15YESIasi Open: Anna Bondar vs Tamara Zidansek✗ −$59
2026-07-15NOWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World ✗ −$59
2026-07-06YESWimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli✗ −$50
2026-07-06NOWimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala✗ −$50
2026-07-05NOWimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Barbora Krejcikova✗ −$50
2026-07-04NOWimbledon WTA: Alexandra Eala vs Iga Swiatek✗ −$50
2026-07-04NOWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 202✗ −$42
2026-07-04YESWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 20✗ −$41
◎ Truth Board — PRDCT Picks is one line in the live forward ledger. See how all four books grade together on /truth (ensemble · Racks/HODL · PRDCT/GMBL).