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Top story Prediction markets beat polls on 2026 midterms as Democrats sweep, with a few surprise misses
Reuters

Across venues from Polymarket to Kalshi, Democratic wins were correctly priced, though several individual races broke against market consensus.

full coverage →prediction-marketselectionsforecasting
KfgoPrediction markets get Democratic win right, with a few surprisesUsnewsPrediction Markets Get Democratic Win Right, With a Few SurprisesBloombergThe Midterm Predictions Were GoodSemaforPrediction markets win big on election nightLivenowfoxPrediction markets vs. polls: Who got the election right?NewsnationnowHow accurately did polling, Polymarket data predict 2026 election results?YahooHow accurately did polling and Polymarket data predict major election results?YahooPrediction markets vs. polls: Election forecasting industry faces midterm testThetimesWho will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictionsTheblockPrediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm electionsTradingview2026 Midterms Prediction Market Odds Update: Democratic Senate Chances Fall to 73%RotowirePrediction Market News: How Accurate Were the 2026 Midterm Markets?AxiosPrediction markets have a lot riding on the blue waveThe GuardianDemocrats’ blue wave and a bad night for Trump: key US midterms takeaways
Midterm prediction market volume tops $1.4B on Election Day and nearly $1.9B overall
Rg

Election betting hit record scale in the US midterms, even as some venues reported slower growth than the 2024 cycle.

full coverage →prediction-marketselectionstrading-volume
WashingtonpostNearly $1.9 billion traded on midterms in booming prediction marketsSigmaUS midterm elections top $1.4B in prediction market betsVarietyMidterm Elections: Americans Have Wagered $1.9 Billion on Prediction Markets on U.S. Races - With Democrats Favored to Win House and SenateFortuneKalshi’s midterm trading tops $1.4 billion as traders bet on a Democratic sweep of CongressStaradvertiserPrediction markets face midterms test as election bets soarStraitstimesPrediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soarTradingviewPrediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soarAstroawaniPrediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soarMercedsunstarPrediction markets face US midterms test as election bets soarBloombergElection Trading Stagnates on Prediction Markets After 2024 BoomCryptobriefingKalshi’s midterm trading volume tops $1 billion as traders bet on Democrats
Prediction markets get midterms accuracy test as election betting goes mainstream
The Guardian

The midterms served as the biggest test yet of whether prediction markets forecast elections better than polls.

full coverage →prediction-marketselectionsforecasting
CbcPrediction markets have gone 'mainstream' but what effect will it have on the U.S. midterms?SubstackFive Thoughts On Prediction Markets As Midterm Elections ArriveWslsPrediction Markets and accuracy in predicting elections. Can you bet on it?NbcwashingtonUnpacking potential concerns about election prediction marketsWowtPrediction markets enter midterm election cycle, Creighton professor saysYahooPrediction markets vs. polls: Election forecasting industry faces midterm testCdtBetting on the Ballot? How Prediction Markets Can Reshape the Election EnvironmentFacebookPrediction market platforms are hoping the U.S. midterm elections will be their moment to shine - and help business boom - with a flood of accurate predictions that surpass polls and election forecastEconomictimesUS midterm election betting surges past $1.4 billion as Democrats score major winsUsatodayThe midterms are a betting market now. Insiders have the edge | OpinionNprWhat a fake poll reveals about worries around prediction markets and the midtermsThe New York TimesThe Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction MarketsBssnewsPrediction markets open new front for US election misinformationKalshiKalshi launches Midterms Hub for live election odds
Kalshi midterm elections produce about $2.5 billion in trades
Covers

Kalshi reported roughly $2.5B in midterm election trading, underscoring the venue's growing role in US political betting.

full coverage →kalshiprediction-marketselections
BloombergThe Midterm Predictions Were GoodKfgoPrediction markets get Democratic win right, with a few surprises12newsKalshi tops $2.5 billion in election trading, but how much did people win?Kalshi2026 midterms recap: Kalshi traders called 98% of racesAsiae[U.S. Midterms, Day of Destiny] Trading on U.S. Midterms Tops KRW 2.5 Trillion... Prediction Markets 'Heat Up'ReutersPrediction markets get Democratic win right, with a few surprisesNypostGOP House candidate in battleground district slapped with $2.5K fine, 3-year ban for 'dumb' Kalshi insider tradesRotowirePrediction Market News: How Accurate Were the 2026 Midterm Markets?DailymailKalshi declares 98 percent combined market success rate for midterm race favorites beating traditional polls… as $2.5 billion total tradedCryptobriefingKalshi’s midterm trading volume tops $1 billion as traders bet on DemocratsThe New York TimesIs Sports Betting Illegal in Your State? Not if You Call It a ‘Prediction Market.’ (Published 2025)
Democratic sweep odds hit 99% on prediction markets as votes were counted
Theblock

Markets converged on a Democratic sweep of Congress through Election Day, a call that ultimately held.

full coverage →prediction-marketselectionscongress
ForbesLive Election Betting Odds: Democratic Sweep Hits 99%SeekingalphaOdds of Democrats sweeping midterms rise above 75% on Election DayKalshiMidterm election odds: Democrats’ chances of sweeping Congress hit 73% with hours left to voteBenzinga2026 Midterms Prediction Market Odds Update: Democratic Senate Chances Fall to 73%NewsnationnowFinal midterm projections give Democrats high odds to sweep CongressQzElection Day is here. Prediction markets show Democrats as heavy favorites to sweep CongressIndependentUS midterm predictions latest: Democrats tipped to sweep CongressIgamingbusinessPrediction market traders expect Dems to record Blue sweep in US House-SenateYahooPrediction markets increasingly price in Democratic sweep as US midterm betting soarsMarketWatchIt’s finally Election Day - and prediction markets may show ‘too much confidence in a good night for Democrats’CasinoElection Day 2026: Prediction Markets and Traditional Polls Forecast Blue WaveBiggoDemocratic Party "Blue Wave" Hits: Nasdaq Futures Plunge 2% Intraday, US Dollar Index Falls to One-Month LowScanxSanders urges working family fight as Dems win Senate; MTG cites tariffsOddsshopperMassachusetts Primary 2026 Odds: Every Kalshi Board Graded
Markets rally on Democratic midterm wins, betting divided Washington means fewer policy shocks
Reuters

Equities and options positioning reflected investor expectations that split control in Washington reduces the odds of major policy shifts.

full coverage →marketselectionspolicy
CNBCOptions traders are betting heavily on these stocks ahead of election resultsTheglobeandmailMarkets cheer Democratic win, betting divided Washington means fewer policy shocksTech-insiderBig Tech Eyes $750B Gain After Democrats Win [2026]InvestingTreasuries rally as Democrats sweep into Congress By Investing.comEconomictimesAI data center stocks dip, renewables surge after Democrat sweep in US midterm electionsBloombergWhat Different US Midterm Outcomes Could Mean for MarketsMorningstarWhat the Midterm Elections Will Mean for MarketsKiplingerA Split Congress Could Spell Big Stock Gains Into 2027. Here Are 4 Ways Investors Can PrepareBloombergWall Street Is Betting On a Split Congress With Midterms on TapAsiatimesWhy Trump’s midterm rebuke won’t likely tank the buckThe New York TimesStocks Rise as Democrats Flip Control of Congress
Nebraska voters reject online sports betting measure
Gamblinginsider

Nebraska becomes the latest state to turn down online sports betting at the ballot, leaving legalization hopes to future elections.

full coverage →sports-bettingnebraskaelections
ActionnetworkNebraska Voters Reject Online Sports Betting. What Happens Next?SubstackNebraska Rejects Online Sports Betting, But Election Results Could Help Gambling ExpansionWowtElection 2026: Nebraska voters reject ballot measures to legalize online sports bettingNebraskaexaminerNebraska voters appear to say ‘no’ to legalizing online sports bettingSportsbusinessjournalNebraska voters reject ballot measures to legalize mobile sports bettingForbesNebraska Appears To Reject Legalized Online Sports Gambling-After FanDuel And DraftKings Donated $20 MillionNebraskapublicmediaNebraskans poised to reject both sports wagering ballot measuresStateaffairsNebraska voters reject measures to legalize online sports gamblingSeekingalphaNebraska voters reject online sports betting initiatives (BETZ:NYSEARCA)LegalsportsreportNebraska Voters Reject Online Sports Betting Despite $22.5 Million CampaignWashingtontimesNebraska rejects measure to permit online sports gamblingCasinoNebraska Sports Betting Remains In-Person After Online Referendums FailGamingamericaNebraska Voters Reject Legalizing Online Sports Betting
Mississippi Senate odds flip to Democrat Scott Colom as upset talk builds
Forbes

Market pricing moved Colom to favorite against incumbent Hyde-Smith, a shift that would be a major Deep South upset.

full coverage →prediction-marketsmississippisenate
ActionnetworkMississippi Senate Race 2026 Polls & Live Odds | Colom Leads Hyde-Smith As Live Midterm Results Updates ContinueOddscheckerMississippi Senate Odds: Scott Colum Flips to Favorite Overnight, On Brink of Massive Senate Upset in Deep SouthWashingtonpostMississippi Democrat Scott Colom defies odds as Senate race is too close to callCbsnewsMississippi Senate race still a toss-up, with margin of under 100 votesBbcDemocrat leads by dozens of votes in surprisingly tight Mississippi Senate raceRolling StoneIs Mississippi Really About to Elect a Democratic Senator?HuffpostMississippi Senate Race Too Close To Call With Most Votes CountedYahooMississippi Senate Race Takes Absolutely Stunning Turn - As Republican Goes from 96% Prediction Market Favorite to Underdog in a FlashRawstory'Another upset might be brewing': Deep red Mississippi Senate race suddenly a toss-upAlternetMississippi could flip as Dem leads by 50 votes - in state without recountMississippitodayMississippi Senate election remains too close to call early WednesdayTimeVance Blames Iran War for GOP’s Midterm LossesThegrioStacey Abrams has been quietly building political power in Mississippi. Scott Colom could be the payoffTippahnewsScott Colom leads Cindy Hyde‑Smith by 28 votes in Mississippi U.S. Senate race
Kalshi wagers for Michigan Senate top $33M, with most money on Abdul El-Sayed
Yahoo

El-Sayed's market position held as results came in, with bettors favoring him over Republican Mike Rogers.

full coverage →prediction-marketsmichigansenate
ActionnetworkKalshi Michigan Senate Race Odds on Election Day: El-Sayed vs. Rogers Final LookCoversEl-Sayed Nails 'Bet On It' Prediction, Beats Rogers in MichiganMoneywiseKalshi users wager $33 million on Michigan's senate race as prediction markets put Abdul El-Sayed's odds near 80%
State officials warn election bettors of felony risks despite prediction market growth
Stateaffairs

Regulators and prosecutors cautioned that betting on elections remains illegal in many states even as platforms expand.

full coverage →regulationprediction-marketselections
Kare11Prediction markets are attracting big money for the midterms despite state laws and regulationsNycitynewsservicePrediction Market Platforms Call New York Home. Voters Call Them “Corrupt”BonusElection Betting Laws Vary by State as Kalshi, Polymarket Face ScrutinyDemocracydocketElection officials warn of the casino-ification of votingWowoElection Betting Surges Ahead of Midterms as States Challenge Prediction MarketsYahooNCAA Warns Prediction Markets Could Intensify Student-Athlete ThreatsVoxThe surprising Wisconsin law that blocks election bettors from voting
Oklahoma and Texas election results clear path for sports betting expansion
Yahoo

Ballot outcomes in two large states could open new sports betting markets, a focus for operators like FanDuel.

full coverage →sports-bettingoklahomatexas
CoversFanDuel Hopeful for Sports Betting Legalization Post-MidtermsSportsbettingdimeWhat Midterm Election Results Will Have Biggest Impact on Sports Betting and iGaming?GamblinginsiderTexas Elections Remove Major Gambling Roadblock, but Legalization Still Faces HurdlesSbcamericas2026 Election Day guide to sports betting, prediction marketsCoversHinojosa, Goodwin Win Texas: What it Means for the Casino, Sports Betting Scene
Nate Silver flags 'insane' pattern in final Polymarket election forecasts
Thedailybeast

Silver compared his FLIPR forecast with market pricing, highlighting persistent gaps between model and market views.

full coverage →nate-silverprediction-marketsforecasting
CoversNate Silver’s Polling Forecast vs. Prediction Markets: Biggest Midterm Election Price DifferencesNatesilverHow to judge an election model270towinFiftyPlusOne 2026 Senate ForecastYahooNate Silver Reveals ‘Insane’ Pattern in Final Election ForecastsYahooNate Silver Reveals ‘Insane’ Pattern in Final Election Forecasts
Roughly $1.48B in election bets flow through Polymarket as US midterms test the venue
Idnfinancials

Polymarket handled a record share of midterm election volume amid continued US regulatory scrutiny.

full coverage →polymarketprediction-marketselections
NewserMidterm Are a Huge Test for Prediction MarketsRgMidterm Prediction Market Bets Top $1.48B on Election DaySigmaUS midterm elections top $1.4B in prediction market betsDefiratePrediction Market Volume Holds at $5.25B as Kalshi Nears 50% Market Share
Better Markets says prediction markets again failed to call election results correctly
Bettermarkets

The advocacy group argued market pricing missed key races, pushing back on claims of superior forecasting.

full coverage →prediction-marketselectionsadvocacy
The GuardianAre prediction markets accurate on elections? The US midterms are a big testNewsnationnowHow accurately did polling, Polymarket data predict 2026 election results?CdtBetting on the Ballot? How Prediction Markets Can Reshape the Election EnvironmentBrennancenterNew Study Finds Prediction Markets Are Influencing Voters - and Voters Want Them RegulatedPolitico4 Top Pollsters on What the Polls Are Really SayingNcslElection Betting Is Banned in Most States. Will Prediction Markets Change That?The New York TimesThe Average Guys Outsmarting Wall Street on Prediction MarketsBloombergHow Accurate Are Prediction Markets, Anyway?The Wall Street JournalWhy Almost Everyone Loses-Except a Few Sharks-on Prediction MarketsTuftsCould Prediction Markets Replace Election Polling?GoodauthorityThe perils of election prediction marketsInvestopediaPolymarket Saw Trump's Win Coming. What's Next for Online Prediction Markets?AljazeeraUS election results: How did opinion polls undercount Trump voters again?PewresearchWhy 2016 election polls missed their mark
Vance 2028 odds slip after midterms as DeSantis gains on prediction markets
Tampafp

Post-election market movement reshuffled 2028 presidential nomination pricing.

full coverage →prediction-markets2028elections
ThedailybeastKnives Out for JD Vance as His 2028 Chances Tank After MidtermsIndependentVance’s 2028 hopes have taken a hit in the midtermsActionnetworkDeSantis 2028 Odds Surge for GOP NominationMediaiteJD Vance’s Presidential Odds Plummet After GOP Wipeout - While Ron DeSantis SurgesTownhallRon DeSantis Surges in Prediction Markets As 2028 Presidential Contender
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