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what the crowd is pricing

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Top story Nearly $1.9 billion traded on US midterms as prediction markets price a Democratic sweep

Trading volume for the 2026 midterms has roughly doubled from the 2024 cycle's election markets, with Kalshi and Polymarket both showing Democrats favored in the House and Senate.

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Kalshi projects Democratic winners across Senate and governor races on election night

Kalshi's state-by-state projections include Democratic flips and holds from Ohio and Texas to Georgia and Maine, giving traders a running scoreboard as results arrive.

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New Jersey takes prediction market legal battle to the Supreme Court

States and platforms are heading toward a high court ruling on whether event contracts fall under federal or state gambling authority.

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DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics pull prediction markets from Utah after Kalshi charges

Operators exited the state after Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi, escalating the state-versus-federal regulatory fight.

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Polymarket unit approved as futures broker by US industry group

The approval marks a step toward regulated US futures market access for the prediction platform's brokerage arm.

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Democrat Annie Andrews wins South Carolina Senate race, defying prediction market odds

The South Carolina result was the main miss for both Kalshi and Polymarket, which had priced the race for the Republican before polls closed.

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Kalshi introduces new security measures to combat insider trading

The exchange is tightening surveillance as scrutiny grows over trading on non-public information in event contracts.

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Apple formally bans employees from trading prediction markets using confidential information

The company updated its insider trading policy amid a broader industry push to curb information edges in event contracts.

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Second Circuit denies Kalshi and Coinbase enforcement shields

The ruling leaves both firms exposed to enforcement action while their regulatory jurisdiction remains unsettled.

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Hedge funds bet on Kalshi as prediction markets draw institutional money

Funds are adding event contract exposure as the platforms broaden beyond election and sports trading.

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Robinhood earnings power on prediction trades far exceeds stock trades, report says

The analysis highlights how much more revenue event contracts can generate per trade for retail brokerages.

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Illinois appeals after judge blocks state prediction markets law

The appeal extends the patchwork of state litigation over who may regulate event contracts.

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DraftKings faces mounting competition in prediction markets

The sportsbook's event market push is being tested by rivals and by DraftKings' own celebrity-backed marketing campaign.

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Sporttrade granted CFTC approval as DCM and DCO for prediction market launch

The sports betting operator joins a growing list of firms seeking federally regulated event contract venues.

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Tribal gaming industry warns prediction markets threaten sovereignty

Tribal operators argue the platforms erode the compact-based exclusivity that underwrites their gaming revenue.

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Election trading stagnates on prediction markets after the 2024 boom

Volumes and product variety are shifting beyond binary election contracts as the cycle matures.

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