Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets had favored Bolsonaro
The unexpected result tested prediction markets' reliability, with Lula winning despite trading at roughly 20% odds on some platforms.
CNBC · +14 outlets
Prediction markets trade more than $1.4 billion on the 2026 midterms
The volume marks prediction markets as a major venue for US midterm speculation as their forecasting credibility faces scrutiny.
Houston Style Magazine · +8 outlets
Prediction markets face a credibility test in the 2026 midterms
The industry's forecasting reputation is on the line as midterm outcomes approach and debate over accuracy intensifies.
Politico · +9 outlets
NBA names Kalshi and Polymarket preferred prediction market partners
The deal brings the prediction market firms into mainstream sports in a significant expansion beyond election and event contracts.
DeFi Rate · +14 outlets
Prediction markets open a new front for US election misinformation
Researchers warn that market odds are increasingly cited in election misinformation narratives.
The Japan Times · +14 outlets
Nate Silver's FLIPR model and others publish 2026 midterm forecasts
Forecasters and analysts offer competing midterm projections as the election nears.
MishTalk · +8 outlets
Midterm polls and predictions show competitive races ahead of November
A range of outlets publish updated polling, odds and live results trackers for the 2026 midterms.
The Times · +14 outlets
Israel polls show deadlock as betting markets favor Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu
Markets diverge from polling in the Israeli leadership contest ahead of a potential election.
Jewish Telegraphic Agency · +7 outlets
Researchers outline what to know about election forecasting and prediction markets
The Center for an Informed Public guides readers on interpreting forecast models and market prices ahead of November.
Center for an Informed Public · +14 outlets
Israel markets see upside in a potential Netanyahu defeat after three-year rally
Israeli financial markets are pricing in possible gains from a change in leadership.
Reuters · +6 outlets
WSJ opinion argues for regulating polls rather than prediction markets
The piece adds to the policy debate over whether market-based forecasts face more or less scrutiny than traditional polling.
WSJ · +5 outlets
Forbes publishes prediction market leaders across Florida, Texas, Kansas, South Dakota and New Jersey races
A series of state-level looks at which candidates prediction markets favor in key 2026 contests.
Forbes · +1 outlets
Prediction markets list favorites in Ohio elections amid statewide ad push
Ohio races have drawn heavy prediction market activity as the state's contests attract national attention.
www.thepostathens.com · +1 outlets
Texas Senate market shows Talarico leading as Trump heads to the state
Prediction markets give Talarico an edge in the Texas Senate race ahead of a Trump rally.
Action Network · +14 outlets
Executives see a bigger future for event contracts beyond sports
Industry figures expect prediction market growth to extend past sports into other categories.
Covers.com · +9 outlets
Michigan Senate odds show El-Sayed versus Rogers after Trump rally
Market odds track the Michigan Senate matchup following a Trump campaign event.
Action Network · +14 outlets
Brazil's election upset tests prediction markets' pitch to brokers
The surprise result raises questions about how brokers market prediction market products to clients.
Finance Magnates · +1 outlets
Cleveland-area candidates see prediction market odds slip from record highs
Odds on Acton and Brown fell after reaching record highs the prior week.
Cleveland.com · +1 outlets