The volume shows prediction market users routing around state prohibitions on election wagering, raising the question of how such bans can be enforced.

Major outlets are pairing live results and race maps with prediction market prices as the midterms approach.

The inquiry follows a pattern of sharp late swings in political markets that has drawn scrutiny from regulators and researchers.

The piece questions whether market prices add real information over polling after several high-profile misses.

Market pricing on a Democratic-controlled Congress is running ahead of some forecasters, a gap analysts attribute to differing methodologies and user bases.

Experts warn that confident-looking odds can be mistaken for forecasts, a concern amplified as more users trade US elections.

The launch adds another model-based projection to a crowded field of midterm forecasts.

Bettors are funding their own field research, blurring the line between trading and campaigning.

Analysts frame the midterms as a referendum on the regulatory trajectory for betting and event contracts.

The Senate map is the tighter of the two chambers in most forecasts heading into November.

Turnout data and one competitive Hudson Valley district are drawing national attention.

The revision reflects shifting generic-ballot and special-election data in the closing stretch.

The contest is among the races drawing the most market and polling interest in the Senate map.

Broadcasters are consolidating polling and results coverage as early voting accelerates.

The Canadian case illustrates how election wagering volumes are growing outside the US.

Israeli political markets are pricing a leadership change, though markets there have faced manipulation questions.

A roundup of polling averages and model output for the House and Senate.