The volume figure underscores how quickly regulated event contracts have become a mainstream venue for election speculation.

Several outlets examine the shift of election forecasting attention from traditional poll aggregation toward live trading venues.

Market-implied odds diverge from some polling, reflecting how traders weigh national sentiment against district-level races.

State-by-state prohibitions vary widely even as prediction market volumes grow, leaving legality unclear in several jurisdictions.

The Senate market implies a narrow Democratic majority, a key data point for control-of-Congress watchers.

The arrangement drew criticism over the blurring of newsgathering and gambling advertising.

Nate Silver's model is among the most closely watched quantitative midterm projections.

The case is one of the few criminal prosecutions tied to political event betting.

Combined House and Senate markets give a snapshot of traders' expectations for control of Congress.

The generic ballot market is a leading indicator for House control heading into the midterms.

Traders repriced long-shot markets tied to the president's political future after his remarks.

Regulatory uncertainty in Brazil is reshaping how political markets and pollsters operate ahead of elections.

Concerns about fabricated polling data raise questions about the inputs behind market pricing.

The forecast model adds another data-driven projection to a crowded midterm forecasting field.

The Texas Senate race is among the most-watched contests in the 2026 cycle.

Local race markets are drawing record pricing interest as the midterms approach.

Political markets outside the US are pricing outcomes in Germany, France and Argentina.

A close Minnesota House contest is a test of how markets read district-level polling.