The proposal would create a regulatory divide that could determine whether event contracts fall under federal derivatives rules or state gambling law.

Regulators and commentators are asking whether election betting venues can police trading on nonpublic political information.

The jurisdictional fight over election contracts is intensifying ahead of the midterms, with states testing bans against federal oversight.

Analysts and academics are watching whether midterm pricing holds up as a forecasting tool, and what that means for gambling policy.

Ohio joins a growing list of states considering restrictions on political prediction markets before the midterms.

Michigan is emerging as a test case for whether market pricing tracks campaign fundamentals after the El-Sayed vs Rogers debate.

Two independent forecasters released midterm models covering the Senate map and overall election odds.

The trackers aggregate Kalshi and other venue pricing on House, Senate and governor races and overall Congress control.

The series covers which candidates are leading in prediction markets across key states.

National outlets compiled current polling, odds and forecast data for the midterm races.

The state-by-state pages track Senate, House and governor market pricing for the 2026 cycle.

Prediction markets are pricing the Los Angeles mayoral contest between incumbent Karen Bass and challenger Raman.

The comparison covers Kalshi and Polymarket pricing on Week 6 NFL games.

Event contracts on reality television outcomes are expanding the scope of prediction market offerings.