PRDCT Politics

Markets and final polls converge on a strong Democratic night, with traders pricing roughly 75% odds of winning both chambers.

Multiple trackers show the Senate control market narrowing to a mid-70s probability for Democrats in the final hours of voting.

The upset result came despite markets favoring Republican Lindsey Graham, a rare miss for election traders.

Analysts and reporters are treating the 2026 midterms as the biggest accuracy test yet for election markets.

Lawmakers are demanding integrity safeguards as prediction market election volume reaches record highs.

State officials warn of felony exposure for election bettors while oversight of the venues remains unsettled.

The ruling keeps Wisconsin's restriction on election wagering in place as states test their authority over prediction markets.

Kalshi's election book crossed $1.4 billion as the platform's political markets drew record participation.

Nate Silver's final forecast and other models align with markets in projecting large Democratic gains.

Michigan is among the most heavily traded individual races on Kalshi as bettors lean toward the Democratic candidate.

Prediction markets diverge from tighter polling in the Texas Senate contest, with Talarico favored.

Broad previews round up the final polling, model and market expectations for House and Senate control.

Several analyses note markets assigning higher confidence to a blue sweep than traditional polling averages.

The forecaster contrasted his polling model with prediction market pricing in the closing hours of the race.

A late shift in the Iowa Senate market moved the favored candidate as Election Day approached.

Reports suggest political volume is not growing as fast as once expected while sports and crypto markets expand.

The Kansas Senate market tightened sharply, drawing attention as a potential Democratic pickup.

The New York governor's race outcome shapes the state's posture toward online betting and prediction venues based there.

The New Jersey House result adds to a strong Democratic night in the state.

The Texas governor's market narrowed even as the incumbent maintained a lead.

Equity options activity reflects bets on how the midterm outcome could move specific sectors.

Institutional interest grows in prediction market products beyond simple yes-or-no election contracts.

Millions in trades tied to Maine races prompted questions about who has access to nonpublic information.

Betting markets diverge from closer polling in the Nevada governor's contest.

Commentators debate the reliability and legitimacy of prediction markets as they take a larger role in election coverage.

Markets and surveys disagree on the Florida statewide races heading into Election Day.

Ballot questions in several states could affect gaming and prediction market rules.

The AP call came as Nebraska voters also weighed ballot measures of interest to the gaming industry.

Ohio's gubernatorial candidates hold clear market leads in the closing stretch.

California races and ballot measures drew active trading in the final days before the vote.

The NC-13 House contest narrowed as bettors weighed late polling.

Markets tracked the closely watched Virginia contest in the final days.