PRDCT Politics - odds on power

Top story Prediction markets claim a strong midterm night, as Kalshi favorites win 96.4% of scored races

Defirate

Multiple outlets report prediction platforms tracked the Democratic sweep closely, though skeptics dispute the accuracy claims.

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Kalshi and Polymarket saw $1.48B in midterm election day betting volume

Record wagering volumes underscored how central prediction markets became to election night coverage.

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CheddarPrediction Markets Nail the Midterms as Billions Bet on Election Outcome ClarionledgerPrediction markets have $35 million in bets on Mississippi Senate race TheassemblyncNorth Carolina Elections Drew More Than $15 Million in Kalshi Bets The Wall Street JournalThe Prediction-Market Bettors Who Turned Election Night Into a Real-Time Casino DefiratePrediction Market Volume Holds at $5.25B as Kalshi Nears 50% Market Share FinancefeedsKalshi’s US Midterm Trading Tops $1.4 Billion as Prediction Markets Price Democratic Sweep

Prediction markets called the election before TV networks, drawing praise and criticism

Yahoo

The speed of market calls renewed debate over whether platforms or traditional models and networks are the better forecasters.

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BenzingaPrediction Markets Beat TV Networks on Election Night, Says Bloomberg Expert TheatlanticPrediction Markets Are Calling It Early SubstackPrediction Markets Are Changing Election Night. Mainstream Media Better Catch Up.CbcDid 'mainstream' prediction markets prove to be accurate on midterm outcomes? | CBC News NatesilverModels led prediction markets in forecasting the blue wave FiftyplusoneFiftyPlusOne first among forecasters in calling 2026 U.S. House election, second in Senate BettermarketsPrediction Markets Did Not Predict Yesterday’s Elections YahooPrediction markets take a victory lap after calling the election before TV networks

2028 presidential betting surges after midterms, with Ossoff leading and Vance falling

Reuters

Markets quickly repriced the next presidential cycle, with Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff topping early boards and JD Vance's odds sliding.

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YahooJon Ossoff Leads 2028 Prediction Markets After Georgia Re-Election AsiaePrediction Markets Already Betting on U.S. Election Two Years Away... Ossoff 'Go,' Vance 'Stop'Rotowire2028 Presidential Election Odds: Kalshi and Polymarket US Prices for the Top 15 Candidates Oddschecker2028 Republican Nominee Odds: JD Vance Tumbles After Midterm Disaster, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis Rise FederalnewsnetworkDemocratic Presidential Nominee Odds After Midterms NewsweekRon DeSantis Issues Dire Prediction for Republicans as His 2028 Odds Surge BloombergThe 2028 Contenders Rising and Falling After Democrats’ Big Night The-independentMidterm election shakes up races for 2028 presidency ThedailybeastDem Star Vaults Past Republicans in 2028 Odds After Midterm Bloodbath YahooJD Vance, Jon Ossoff or Kamala Harris? Crypto Bettors Assign Highest Odds of Winning to This 2028 Presidential Candidate MediaiteJD Vance’s Presidential Odds Plummet After GOP Wipeout - While Ron DeSantis Surges SeekingalphaJon Ossoff tops 2028 presidential odds after Democrats' sweep of Congress (SP500:)ActionnetworkSen. Jon Ossoff Odds Surge to 24% for 2028 Democratic Nomination at Kalshi CfrThe 2028 Presidential Race Is About to Begin

Arkansas sues Kalshi over state gambling requirements

Defirate

The state action adds to a widening legal fight over whether prediction market contracts fall under gambling law.

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KvomArkansas Sues Online Prediction Market Kalshi for Alleged Illegal Gambling and Consumer Violations MezhaKalshi loses fresh appeals over state gambling laws as Arkansas sues MysalineArkansas Attorney General sues Kalshi, calling it unregulated gambling Thv11Arkansas sues Kalshi for providing 'illegal gambling platform' in state KjnbtvArkansas AG sues Kalshi, VGW over alleged illegal online gambling UnchainedcryptoArkansas Attorney General Sues Kalshi, Saying Bets on Razorbacks Games Are Gambling ThedefiantArkansas Sues Kalshi to Stop Alleged Illegal Gambling TheblockArkansas sues Kalshi, says its alleged illegal gambling operations cause mental harm DecryptArkansas Sues Kalshi, Joining a Growing List of States Targeting Prediction Markets ArkansasonlineArkansas attorney general sues online firms Kalshi, VGW, accuses both of offering state-prohibited gambling NeareportGriffin Sues Kalshi, Alleging Illegal Gambling in Arkansas CryptoKalshi hit with Arkansas lawsuit over unlicensed sports betting CdcgamingArkansas sues Kalshi and VGW over alleged illegal gambling CoindeskArkansas Attorney General sues Kalshi for illegal gambling

California tribes win injunction blocking Kalshi sports contracts on their lands

Defirate

A court order limits Kalshi's sports offerings on tribal territory amid ongoing sovereignty disputes.

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SbcamericasKalshi blocked from California tribal lands via injunction ThedefiantCalifornia Tribes Win Order Barring Kalshi Sports Contracts on Their Lands ReutersUS appeals court blocks Kalshi from offering event contracts on Native American lands Law3609th Circ. Greenlights Blocking Kalshi Contracts On Tribal Land SubstackThe Hitchhikers’ Guide To Prediction Markets Litigation DefirateCalifornia Tribes Win Injunction Blocking Kalshi Sports Contracts on Their Lands

Democrats win midterms; markets bet a divided Washington means fewer policy shocks

Reuters

Investors and analysts read the results as reducing the odds of major legislative swings.

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SbcamericasUS gambling expansion map shaken by Election Day earthquake YahooWhat the Midterm Election Results Mean for Your Money TheglobeandmailMarkets soar after Democratic win, betting divided Washington means fewer policy shocks SeekingalphaWhat Democrats' Midterm Win Means For Markets Business InsiderUS stocks jump after Democrats win control of the House and Senate BusinesstimesPost midterm elections, Asia faces a more constrained but no less unpredictable Trump TwaslnewsMarkets cheer Democratic win, betting divided Washington means fewer policy shocks Gulf-timesMarket bets: Divided Washington means fewer policy shocks | Gulf Times AolWall Street may be expecting too much from a Democratic Congress, an economist says BworldonlineDemocrats capture Congress in sweeping setback for Trump MSNMarkets cheer Democratic win, betting divided Washington means fewer policy shocks

Texas and Georgia races seen as pivotal to gambling expansion hopes

Worldcasinodirectory

Election outcomes in the two states could reshape the map for casinos and sports betting.

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ActionnetworkA New Era for Texas Gambling? What the Election Means for Casinos and Sports Betting StatesmanCould Dan Patrick's loss open the door to THC and sports betting?GamblinginsiderDemocrats Win Midterms, but Prediction Markets’ Biggest Threat May Come From Texas and Georgia

Nebraska voters reject mobile sports betting initiatives

Wowt

The loss marks a setback for online sports betting expansion in a red state.

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Mississippi Senate race draws $35 million in prediction market bets

Clarionledger

Democrat Scott Colom was priced as a heavy favorite in a contest drawing outsized market interest.

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ForbesMississippi Senate Betting Odds Show Democrat Scott Colom Poised For Upset DefirateColom and Peltola Top 94% as Senate Counts Continue Fox4kcKansas Senate race draws more than $19 million from prediction markets CryptonewsHouse Flip? Senate Hold? Prediction Markets Unleash Wild 2026 Midterm Election Bets AjcPolitically Georgia: Rick Jackson loan becomes a Democratic talking point 270towinOverview and Live Results: Texas, North Carolina, Arkansas Midterm Election Primaries ClarionledgerPrediction markets have $35 million in bets on Mississippi Senate race

Nevada governor's race shows a heavy betting favorite

Reviewjournal

Market odds pointed to a lopsided outcome in the state's top race.

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DefirateRaman Hits 99% on Kalshi as LA Mayor Count Continues PbsLive Results: Democrat Aaron Ford wins Nevada governor's race CbsnewsDemocrat Aaron Ford wins 2026 Nevada governor's race, defeating incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo ThenevadaindependentLive updates: Nevada's 2026 election results LatintimesNevada's governor's race is a true toss-up: Lombardo and Ford tied at 47% in the final poll The New York TimesWhy Polling Chaos Could Create Big Problems for American Politics Mynews4Nevada Governor GOP primary: 6 longshot candidates taking on incumbent Joe Lombardo Politico‘This is the new Ohio’: Why everyone’s watching the Nevada governor’s race Multistate2026 Governor Elections NbcnewsDemocrat Aaron Ford unseats GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo in Nevada governor’s race NprNevada Attorney General Aaron Ford beats Republican incumbent for governor Fox5vegasJoe Lombardo concedes Nevada Governor’s race to Aaron Ford NevadacurrentOne safe bet in the race for governor: Lombardo won’t be outspent BrookingsIn 2026 governor races, local issues rival national trend

Forbes publishes state-by-state prediction market leaderboards after midterms

Forbes

A wave of state-level market recaps tracked which candidates led on platforms across dozens of races.

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CoversIowa Midterm Election Odds 2026: Senate, House & Governor NewsnationnowMidterms: Current odds in every battleground Senate race

Industry executives weigh how prediction markets keep action alive between elections

Gamingamerica

Operators and analysts debate product expansion and post-election engagement strategies.

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NymagKalshi Also Won the Midterms SubstackPrediction Markets And Midterms: A Postmortem BeincryptoKalshi CEO Pitches Insider Trading Rules as Democrats Weigh Their Own CoversSports Dominate Prediction Markets. Executives See a Bigger Future Beyond Them

Bettors tracked Beau Bayh in Indiana race throughout election day

Indystar

Localized betting interest highlighted how granular prediction market activity became.

full coverage →prediction-marketsindianamidterms

ChicagotribuneBeau Bayh encourages accountability, civic participation after Secretary of State win YahooLive updates: Indiana House GOP chooses new speaker after Huston ouster WfyiBayh wins heated Indiana Secretary of State race, and other statewide results NewsfromthestatesTop matters at stake this Indiana Election Day PurdueexponentDemocrat Beau Bayh wins Indiana secretary of state race Thestatehousefile2026 Midterm Elections-TheStatehouseFile.com live blog EverythinglubbockFirst Democrat wins statewide office in Indiana since 2012 NewsnowwarsawKosciusko Republicans sweep local elections amid blue wave across the country ActionnetworkIndiana Sports Betting | Best IN Sportsbooks & Betting Promos UsatodayBettors put money on Beau Bayh in Indiana race throughout Election Day

NBA MVP race draws prediction market attention to Doncic and Wembanyama

Covers

Sports contracts remain a major volume driver for prediction platforms.

full coverage →prediction-marketsnbasports

YahooFans Fume After Luka Doncic Still Trails Victor Wembanyama in MVP Race CoversDoncic, Wembanyama Dominating NBA MVP Race at Prediction Markets

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