Nearly $1.9 billion wagered on midterms as prediction markets hit record volumes
Trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket has scaled from a niche 2024 experiment to a multi-billion-dollar election event, drawing mainstream media and financial
The Washington Post · +12 outlets
Prediction markets face their first real midterm accuracy test as election bets soar
With Election Day live, forecasters and academics are watching whether market prices beat polls on House and Senate control after a string of high-profile misse
Reuters · +13 outlets
Traders price Democrats as heavy favorites to sweep House and Senate
Kalshi and Polymarket contracts have moved sharply toward Democrats in the final days of the campaign, with Senate odds jumping on Election Day.
iGaming Business · +14 outlets
Election trading stagnates on prediction markets compared with 2024 boom
Bloomberg and others report that despite record dollar totals, election-specific activity is growing slower than sports and crypto contracts on the same platfor
Bloomberg.com · +9 outlets
Wisconsin judge denies injunction, leaving ban on betting then voting in place
A court declined to block Wisconsin's rule forcing election traders to choose between voting and holding prediction market positions, and state officials warn v
The Center Square · +4 outlets
Senators press Kalshi and Polymarket to prove election odds are not tainted
Lawmakers want the platforms to show how they detect manipulation and insider trading in election contracts ahead of the vote.
Business Insider · +9 outlets
Sporttrade wins CFTC approval to enter prediction market industry
The sports betting exchange becomes the latest regulated entrant in federally overseen event contracts, adding competition to Kalshi and Polymarket.
Covers.com · +9 outlets
Prediction markets may face bipartisan reckoning in Washington after midterms
Industry observers expect Congress and regulators to revisit event contracts once the election is over, with platforms dependent on political goodwill they cann
Front Office Sports · +4 outlets
Reuters: serious money on the line brings rush and stress to midterm bettors
Reuters reports a wave of retail and professional traders treating election contracts as a financial position rather than a novelty.
Reuters · +2 outlets
Nate Silver flags 'insane' pattern in final Polymarket election forecasts
The forecaster compared his final model with market prices and found unusual divergences in several races, feeding the debate over market accuracy.
The Daily Beast · +2 outlets
Election odds can still be moved for about $3,500, researcher finds
A manipulation study found thin order books in some midterm markets allow relatively cheap price moves, a key concern for regulators.
Gambling Insider · +2 outlets
Texas Senate: prediction markets show Talarico well ahead of Paxton despite tight polls
Market prices put the Democratic candidate around 72%, a gap with traditional polling that has become a test case for election contracts.
KHOU · +14 outlets
Maine election prediction markets draw insider trading and influence concerns
Local reporting says millions traded on Maine races, raising questions about people with non-public information taking positions.
newscentermaine.com · +3 outlets
Kansas Senate odds flip to Democrat, a first in 94 years on market pricing
Oddschecker reports Adam Hamilton taking the lead in Kansas, while a prominent model gives Democrats 90% odds of Senate control as the state trends blue.
Oddschecker · +14 outlets
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed's odds hit record 80% on Kalshi
The Kalshi news feed shows the Democratic candidate's contract climbing to a new high heading into Election Day.
Kalshi News · +13 outlets
Prediction markets move beyond binary contracts into new tools for money managers
Pensions & Investments reports asset managers are exploring multi-outcome event contracts as hedging and research instruments.
Pensions & Investments · +14 outlets
Ohio: Sherrod Brown and Amy Acton lead in prediction markets on Election Day
Market prices favor Democrats in Ohio's Senate and governor races, with Brown holding a strong lead over Jon Husted.
Oddschecker
Texas governor race tightens in prediction markets, Abbott still favored
CNBC reports the gap narrowing but the incumbent Republican remaining the market favorite.
CNBC