Archive snapshot · Politics
Tue, Nov 3, 3:46 AM ET
Senators Warren and Curtis press Kalshi, Polymarket to prove midterm election odds are not tainted
Lawmakers are asking the prediction market operators to show their election markets are free from manipulation and insider trading before the vote.
Business Insider · +14 outlets
Prediction market traders now see roughly 75% odds of Democrats winning Senate control
Senate control odds on prediction markets have swung toward Democrats in the final days of the campaign.
CNBC · +14 outlets
Midterm betting volume hits record levels as traders pour nearly $1.3 billion into predicting Congress
Prediction markets have drawn record election volume, with research suggesting odds can still be moved for a few thousand dollars.
Fox News · +4 outlets
Live results and maps: 2026 US midterm elections and key races to watch
Outlets are publishing live results infrastructure for House, Senate and governor races ahead of Election Day and the count that follows.
Bloomberg.com · +13 outlets
Kalshi and Polymarket users traded $1.1M on Maryland elections despite a state betting ban
Offshore and federally regulated platforms are taking Maryland election wagers even though the state prohibits election betting.
Baltimore Sun · +3 outlets
Democrats near 94% to win the House on election eve, prediction market odds show
House control odds heavily favor Democrats in final pre-election pricing, though Senate races remain the closer contest.
Action Network · +14 outlets
WSJ questions whether prediction markets will miss again on the midterms after past election errors
Polls and market prices diverge ahead of the vote, reviving debate over whether election markets are reliably calibrated.
WSJ · +5 outlets
Top model gives Democrats 90% odds of taking the Senate as Kansas trends blue
Statistical forecasters are converging on Democratic Senate odds well above where some market platforms sit.
Fortune · +2 outlets
Maine Senate odds put Troy Jackson at roughly 73% over Susan Collins
Maine is among the most heavily traded Senate markets, with millions wagered and questions raised about influence and insider trading.
VegasInsider · +14 outlets
Polls show a tight Texas Senate race while prediction markets tell a different story
Texas Senate pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket diverges from public polling in one of the cycle's marquee races.
KHOU · +14 outlets
Prediction markets show a late Democratic surge in toss-up midterm races
Late-cycle pricing shifts toward Democrats across swing Senate contests, though polls and markets still diverge in places.
Covers.com · +14 outlets
Silver Bulletin publishes final FLIPR 2026 midterm forecast and model-judging guidance
The final pre-election forecast lands alongside an explainer on how to evaluate election models' track records.
Silver Bulletin · +6 outlets
When will we know who won the midterms? Bloomberg explains the counting timeline
Close races and state rules mean definitive control of Congress may take days after polls close.
Bloomberg.com · +13 outlets
Bloomberg and StoneX outline market risks to watch through the US midterms
Analysts flag election-night timing, result disputes and market positioning as key risks for traders.
StoneX · +1 outlets
Texas governor race tightens in prediction markets, but Abbott remains favored
Texas governor pricing narrowed late in the cycle while the incumbent still holds an edge on the platforms.
CNBC · +13 outlets
Kalshi prices an 87.7% chance of a Democratic blue wave in the midterms
The platform's blue wave contract is one of the most-watched aggregate indicators heading into Election Day.
VegasInsider
Kalshi and Polymarket prices compared for the 2026 midterm elections
Traders and outlets are comparing pricing and week-over-week shifts across the two largest US election market venues.
Sports Betting Dime
Election betting's mainstream arrival draws scrutiny over its effect on US politics
Commentators and academics debate whether mass election trading improves information or distorts political incentives.
CBC · +1 outlets

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