Archive snapshot · Politics
Sun, Nov 1, 3:46 AM ET
Polymarket and Kalshi Face Major Accuracy Test in the Midterms
The two largest prediction markets face their biggest credibility test yet as election contracts draw heavy volume.
The New York Times · +5 outlets
Warren, Curtis Press Kalshi and Polymarket on Election Insider Trading
Senators are pushing the prediction market platforms over concerns that traders may be profiting from non-public information on election contracts.
CoinMarketCap · +14 outlets
CNBC Investigates Suspicious Election-Contract Trading on Prediction Markets
Reporting details unusual trading patterns in election contracts, including in a Los Angeles race.
CNBC · +2 outlets
Nate Silver's FLIPR Raises Democrats' Chances in 2026 Senate and House Races
The forecaster's midterm model moved toward Democrats in both chambers days before the vote.
Nacionale · +14 outlets
Polymarket Probes Suspicious Last-Minute Bets on Netanyahu Election Win
The platform is examining a late flurry of wagers on Netanyahu's election, adding to scrutiny of prediction market integrity.
Haaretz · +5 outlets
Prediction Markets Have Repeatedly Missed on Elections, WSJ Notes Ahead of Midterms
Track record questions are resurfacing as markets again price tight races with apparent confidence.
Yahoo Finance · +2 outlets
Democrat Lead Grows in House and Senate Races, Betting Markets Show
Market-implied odds continued shifting toward Democrats as election day neared.
Action Network · +14 outlets
Current Odds in Every Battleground Senate Race
Several Senate contests tightened in the closing stretch of the 2026 campaign.
NewsNation · +14 outlets
Betting Odds Look More Certain Than Polls, Bloomberg Warns Against Confusing the Two
Market prices and polling averages measure different things, a gap analysts say confuses casual observers.
Bloomberg · +3 outlets
Midterms 2026: Where the Congress Polls and Forecasts Stand
A roundup of congressional polling, seat forecasts and midterm predictions.
NBC News · +13 outlets
Kalshi and Polymarket Piled On Media Deals Ahead of the Midterms
The prediction market operators expanded media partnerships as election coverage approached.
Bloomberg.com · +6 outlets
Prediction Markets Overwhelmingly Back Talarico Against Paxton in Texas Senate Race
Traders strongly favored the Democratic candidate in the Texas Senate matchup.
Dallas Observer · +1 outlets
Sherrod Brown's Victory Odds Rebound in Prediction Markets; Amy Acton's Hold Steady
Ohio races drew focus as market odds shifted on the Democratic Senate hopeful's chances.
Cleveland.com
Lula's Shock Brazil Victory Does Not Prove Betting Markets Failed, Analysis Argues
The Brazilian result is being cited in debate over whether election markets mispriced the race.
The Irish Times
Study Finds Prediction Markets in Half of Sampled Midterm Forecast Searches
Research suggests market odds are increasingly appearing in mainstream election forecast queries.
Yahoo Finance · +3 outlets
Connecticut: Prediction Markets Show Fazio as Underdog to Lamont
Market odds favor the incumbent in the Connecticut governor's race.
WFSB
Georgia Elections: Who's Leading in Prediction Markets?
Market odds across Georgia's statewide contests.
Forbes · +1 outlets
South Carolina Senate Race: Andrews vs. Graham Odds and Polls
Polling and market odds in the South Carolina Senate matchup.
Action Network

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