We pull the plays from every sports-betting tipster — YouTube, blogs, newsletters — and grade each one against the real final score. Then we rank by True Edge: the ROI that still stands after a confidence test. A lucky streak on twelve bets doesn't move you up the board. A real, repeatable edge does. We make no apologies for the math.
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Raw ROI lies on small samples. Win five plus-money dogs in a row and you'll show a gaudy return that vanishes the moment the coin lands the other way. So we never rank on it.
True Edge is the 90% lower-confidence bound on ROI — the worst-case return we're statistically confident is real once both sample size and bet-to-bet variance are priced in. A high-variance gambler or a 10-bet wonder gets pulled toward zero. Only an edge that keeps a positive lower bound earns the Proven tag. Everything else is labeled honestly: Hot, unproven, Too early, or Fade.
This is the same discipline behind the stock ensemble and the +EV model: follow the proven, fade the noise, and never confuse a hot streak for a skill.