The Picker Ensemble

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Ensemble convergence book — this is not the Racks/HODL daily news picks (/racks/picks, /hodl/picks) and not what the Alpaca agent trades.

🎯 Conviction board · cross-signal confirmation, regime-weighted & conviction-sized

Ticker	Size	Score	Types	Confirming signals (sources)

🚪 Exit policy · backtested on the entry signal — how to manage the round-trip

Exit rule	Alpha	Win	Worst	Avg hold

🎲 Contrarian conviction · 3+ independent types agree but UNDER-COVERED (≤7 sources) — the asymmetric/early sleeve, hunts PLTR-2020 types (higher variance; crowded names won more on average)

Ticker	Types	Sources	Independent signals agreeing

🔥 Igniting now · 3+ trusted sources turned bullish within ~3 weeks

Ticker	Sources	Who converged	Date

Trust scores · ranked by True Edge — the 90% lower-bound on alpha, so a hot small sample earns no vote. 🔒 = proven (edge survives the confidence test)

Consensus book · where trusted pickers agree (solid, more priced-in)

Ticker	Net	# agree	Backed by

Contrarian book · a high-trust expert early & nearly alone — the "Palantir-2020" zone

Ticker	Best trust	Backed by